Will the AI Bubble Pop? Experts Predict Reality Will Burst the Bubble in 2026

While industry insiders can’t agree whether AI is in a bubble or not, a Fortune article released last month examines OpenAI’s promise of an artificial intelligence revolution with the reality that the company still hasn’t made a profit.

The investment bank HSBC, while clarifying that it still believes AI is a “megacycle” and that its forecasts “indicate a leading position for OpenAI from a revenue standpoint,” calculates that the company faces an extraordinary financial mountain if it is to deliver on its ambitions.

HSBC Global Investment Research projects that OpenAI still won’t be profitable by 2030, even though its consumer base will grow by that point to comprise some 44% of the world’s adult population (up from 10% in 2025).

Beyond that, it will need at least another $207 billion of compute to keep up with its growth plans, according to HSBC.

“After years of chasing the AI hype, companies are waking up to the consequences of AI slop, underperforming tools, fragmented systems, and wasted budgets. The early rush to adopt AI prioritized speed over strategy, leaving many organizations with little to show for their investments,” said Brooke Johnson, chief legal officer, Ivanti.

In 2026, companies must take a decisive pivot, especially when approaching agentic AI, with intentionally disciplined integration to replace blind adoption, she explains.

“Businesses will demand proof of maturity and ROI before committing resources, focusing on AI solutions that deliver measurable value. The mindset shift? Treat AI like an employee—train it, review it, and hold it accountable. Building trust and educating employees on how to use these tools will become essential, ensuring AI simplifies workflows rather than disrupts them. This marks a new era for enterprise tech: AI adoption grounded in accountability, performance, and strategic alignment—not hype,” Johnson said.

Microsoft is even feeling the chill of disinterest in AI, as Extreme Tech reports the company has cut its sales targets for its agentic AI software after struggling to find buyers interested in using it.

In some cases, targets have been slashed by up to 50%, suggesting Microsoft overestimated the potential of its new AI tools. Indeed, compared with ChatGPT and Google's Gemini, Copilot is falling behind, raising concerns about Microsoft's substantial AI investment.

The report, originally published by The Information, says no one is buying [Microsoft’s AI tools] because very few people actually find them useful.

In 2026, the companies that succeed with AI won’t be the boldest; they’ll be the ones with real guardrails, Eoin Hinchy, co-founder and CEO of Tines, agrees. The question will shift from “Can AI do this?” to “Should AI do this?”

“2025 was the year of experimentation. Looking ahead to 2026, curiosity will give way to commitment as enterprises start to rely on AI agents as business-critical tools. But this psychological shift—moving from testing agents to trusting them—will widen between those who succeed and those who don’t because of one defining factor: security and governance,” Hinchy said. “Companies that invest upfront in defining clear controls and guardrails will unlock the transformative productivity gains that have long been marketed. Those that rush to deploy without proper oversight, on the other hand, will face public failures that damage their brand and erode trust. Flashy demos may impress, but they rarely endure. The next phase of AI maturity depends on learning to delegate responsibility. Governance is not a box to check; it is the strategy. Those who understand this will turn AI from theater into lasting impact.”